?

Log in

No account? Create an account
 
 
06 November 2016 @ 05:39 am
Game loss  
Yesterday I lost 12 hours playing diep.io.

But at least I am not loosing money alongside with the time -- like clients of Darin Notaro (AKA Steve Stevens) do:



---
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12867534
Yes, this scam is live and well in the sports betting world. There is even a CNBC reality TV show called "Money Talks" that documents and encourages this; as documented by the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xiiv-s-DRs http://www.vipsportslasvegas.com/
The recipe is:
1. Cold call people on a lead sheet for people indicate interest on placing bets on sports games.
2. Sell interested folks with a "two week package" for $250; seems pricey, but the name of the game is to filter out the minnows catch gullible whales. You want folks who are "vested" on this and prove they have the cash to be scammed. Double-side your bets or smarter yet, side your bets by the probability implied by the Vegas oddsmakers (50% Team One Wins, 50% Team Two Wins or 70% Team One Wins, 30% Team two if spread is that way).
3. After a couple of weeks pass, call up the people who have won 4 or 5 games in a row, inevitable happenstance by sheer probability. Upsell them on a "weekend Vegas package" where they can gamble on higher stakes preferably $50K-$75K; because you're seem now as a infallible genius by the marks, you charge them a 35%-50% commission on their wins.
4. Doesn't matter if your client wins or lose. Take home the 50% commission on their churn and move onto the next one. Rinse and repeat.
The show is highly entertaining and enlightening not because of the extreme doucheness of the head scammer and his salesmen, but the marks who delude themselves as they lose game after game and gets scammed - all followed by the camera-men of CNBC and the spin-motivational commentary of the scammers.
---

It's fascinating, how "Money Talks - Sports Handicapping Reality TV" show is built in a "wrestling games" style: it does not lie and shows almost all relevant facts, but at the same time allows people who like to get duped - stay duped.

===
https://youtu.be/SUZT_fZVDi4?t=953
Anybody that says that they are going to make 71.3% the entire baseball season, besides ourselves - they are lying.
===
It's a masterpiece:
1) Darin Notaro does not claim that he makes 71.3% correct forecasts (which is important for legal reasons).
2) A gullible person may easily believe that Darin Notaro makes 71.3% correct forecasts.
3) The precision Darin puts into that number creates an impression of real number and makes it more believable.

The funny thing about that 71.3% claim is that it is a money-loosing proposition to agree to pay 50% of the winnings if you win less than 100% of the time.
With 71.3% winnings if you give away 50% of the money you win - you loose 28.7%

But 71.3% claim is also unrealistic:
---
http://www.businessinsider.com/cnbc-betting-show-star-fraud-2013-7
The 70% claim was a red flag for a lot of sports betting folks. Voulgaris, whom Nate Silver called the best sports bettor in the world, only wins about 57% of his NBA bets.
---