Bison
Bison died couple of days ago...
Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/206682.html
Courage to share risky ideas
I and my new trainee discussed his idea about how to optimize our job feeds integration process [that my trainee learns].
The trainee's optimization idea turned out to be incorrect [which is unsurprising for a newbie].
I talked about a balance between our desire to learn from new suggestions vs our desire to avoid spending time on discussing too many mistakes.
My recommendation range: definitely more than zero suggestions per day, but less than several hundred incorrect suggestions per day.
My trainee had only several suggestions today, but he felt that he suggested too much.
My follow-up message to the trainee:
~~~~~~~
Please remember how you incorrectly predicted whether you are oversuggesting or undersuggesting.
You thought that you are oversuggesting (too many mistakes), but, actually, you are undersuggesting (too few suggestions).
That mistake [of being too cautious] is typical.
You frequently will feel that you are making too many mistakes in your suggestions. That feeling is incorrect. You should watch for that "what if I am wrong?" bias and remind yourself that you should discuss your ideas even if your ideas are likely to turn out to be incorrect.
Sharing your idea and identifying holes in your idea -- will help you to adjust your mental model and generate better ideas in the future.
If you fail to frequently share your ideas -- you will not learn fast enough and is likely to fail at your job.
~~~~~~~ Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/206471.html
The trainee's optimization idea turned out to be incorrect [which is unsurprising for a newbie].
I talked about a balance between our desire to learn from new suggestions vs our desire to avoid spending time on discussing too many mistakes.
My recommendation range: definitely more than zero suggestions per day, but less than several hundred incorrect suggestions per day.
My trainee had only several suggestions today, but he felt that he suggested too much.
My follow-up message to the trainee:
~~~~~~~
Please remember how you incorrectly predicted whether you are oversuggesting or undersuggesting.
You thought that you are oversuggesting (too many mistakes), but, actually, you are undersuggesting (too few suggestions).
That mistake [of being too cautious] is typical.
You frequently will feel that you are making too many mistakes in your suggestions. That feeling is incorrect. You should watch for that "what if I am wrong?" bias and remind yourself that you should discuss your ideas even if your ideas are likely to turn out to be incorrect.
Sharing your idea and identifying holes in your idea -- will help you to adjust your mental model and generate better ideas in the future.
If you fail to frequently share your ideas -- you will not learn fast enough and is likely to fail at your job.
~~~~~~~ Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/206471.html
ABNB
ABNB is cheap now ($171.85)
I think it is a good time to buy.
Then sell ABNB for ~$210 (hopefully, 1-2 weeks later).
But, of course, there is always a risk of a bigger panic and recovery only after a year.
I bought ABNB in $170 ... $180 range. Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/206214.html
I think it is a good time to buy.
Then sell ABNB for ~$210 (hopefully, 1-2 weeks later).
But, of course, there is always a risk of a bigger panic and recovery only after a year.
I bought ABNB in $170 ... $180 range. Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/206214.html
Roblox IPO
RBLX market cap is ~$47.5B = 652 million outstanding shares * $72.88/share
Update:
I, probably, will not buy RBLX.
I think that Roblox game popularity is likely, already, close to the maximum.
My son Timothy (12 year old) (who informed me about Roblox IPO at $46 yesterday) - does not play Roblox anymore (in theory, Timothy likes to play Roblox, but he plays other games now, which is a hint about oncoming Roblox decline).
Traffic chart suggests that there was ~2.2% adjusted traffic growth between January and February no growth in roblox.com web traffic in February 2021:
https://www.similarweb.com/website/roblox.com/
February is 10.7% shorter than January, so 8.5% decline in traffic [from 900,500 in January to 830,000 in February] indicates 2.2% January->February traffic growth. Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/206073.html
Update:
I, probably, will not buy RBLX.
I think that Roblox game popularity is likely, already, close to the maximum.
My son Timothy (12 year old) (who informed me about Roblox IPO at $46 yesterday) - does not play Roblox anymore (in theory, Timothy likes to play Roblox, but he plays other games now, which is a hint about oncoming Roblox decline).
Traffic chart suggests that there was ~2.2% adjusted traffic growth between January and February no growth in roblox.com web traffic in February 2021:
https://www.similarweb.com/website/roblox.com/
February is 10.7% shorter than January, so 8.5% decline in traffic [from 900,500 in January to 830,000 in February] indicates 2.2% January->February traffic growth. Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/206073.html
GME - short squeeze 2
Irresponsible GME traders jeopardize my GME price prediction forecast
My forecast suggested that GME will have long-term decline (down to $10), but GME repeatedly trades at $300+ (GME is at $347.00 now)
If GameStop company has multiple opportunities to recapitalize at $300+ per share, then there is no reason for GME price to drop significantly below $100 in the next few years.
My GME forecast mistake hints that I significantly overestimated the impact of crazy money on the stock market.
People have so much easy money available, that they are making big bets on pump-and-dump games [such as "GME short-squeeze" and Bitcoin].
If there is too much crazy money available, then we will likely to have another stock bubble ahead of us.
S&P 500 is likely to reach above 4000 in the following few weeks. Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/205788.html
My forecast suggested that GME will have long-term decline (down to $10), but GME repeatedly trades at $300+ (GME is at $347.00 now)
If GameStop company has multiple opportunities to recapitalize at $300+ per share, then there is no reason for GME price to drop significantly below $100 in the next few years.
My GME forecast mistake hints that I significantly overestimated the impact of crazy money on the stock market.
People have so much easy money available, that they are making big bets on pump-and-dump games [such as "GME short-squeeze" and Bitcoin].
If there is too much crazy money available, then we will likely to have another stock bubble ahead of us.
S&P 500 is likely to reach above 4000 in the following few weeks. Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/205788.html
Trading for a Living - Alexander Elder
~~~
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7MEEB7e_8o
Trading for a Living (audiobook) - Dr. Alexander Elder
~~~
This (1993) book explains:
1) What does "decline in trading volume" mean (A: reversal of a bull trend).
2) What is causing "resistance levels" to form (A: memory about past losses).
3) Why minority's opinion on the market matters more than majority's opinion:
~~~
https://youtu.be/g7MEEB7e_8o?t=7681
While the number of long and short contracts is always equal, the number of individuals who hold them keeps changing. If the majority is bullish, then the minority, those who are short, has more contracts per person than the longs. If the majority is bearish, then the bullish minority has bigger positions per person.
1. If bullish consensus equals 50 percent, then 50 percent of traders are long and 50 percent are short. An average trader who is long holds as many contracts as an average trader who is short.
2. When bullish consensus reaches 80 percent, it shows that 80 percent of traders are long and 20 percent are short. Since the sizes of total long and total short positions are always equal, an average bear is short four times as many contracts as are held long by an average bull. This means that an average bear has four times more money than an average bull. The big money is on the short side of the market.
3. When bullish consensus falls to 20 percent, it means that 20 percent of traders are long and 80 percent are short. Since the numbers of long and short contracts are always equal, an average bull holds four times more contracts than are held by an average bear. It shows that big money is on the long side of the market.
Big money did not grow big by being stupid. Big traders tend to be more knowledgeable and successful than average -- otherwise they stop being big traders. When big money gravitates to one side of the market, think of trading in that direction.
To interpret bullish consensus in any market, obtain at least twelve months of historical data on consensus and note the levels at which the market has turned in the past.
Update these levels once every three months. The next time the market consensus becomes highly bullish, look for an opportunity to sell short using technical indicators. When the consensus becomes very bearish, look for a buying opportunity.
Advisory opinion sometimes begins to change a week or two in advance of major trend reversals. If bullish consensus ticks down from 78 to 76, or if it rises from 25 to 27, it shows that the savviest advisors are abandoning what looks like a winning trend. This means that the trend is ready to reverse.
Google Books
~~~
Is there a data available about what does "rich minority" of futures traders bets on S&P 500 futures (or VIX futures)? Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/205359.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7MEEB7e_8o
Trading for a Living (audiobook) - Dr. Alexander Elder
~~~
This (1993) book explains:
1) What does "decline in trading volume" mean (A: reversal of a bull trend).
2) What is causing "resistance levels" to form (A: memory about past losses).
3) Why minority's opinion on the market matters more than majority's opinion:
~~~
https://youtu.be/g7MEEB7e_8o?t=7681
While the number of long and short contracts is always equal, the number of individuals who hold them keeps changing. If the majority is bullish, then the minority, those who are short, has more contracts per person than the longs. If the majority is bearish, then the bullish minority has bigger positions per person.
1. If bullish consensus equals 50 percent, then 50 percent of traders are long and 50 percent are short. An average trader who is long holds as many contracts as an average trader who is short.
2. When bullish consensus reaches 80 percent, it shows that 80 percent of traders are long and 20 percent are short. Since the sizes of total long and total short positions are always equal, an average bear is short four times as many contracts as are held long by an average bull. This means that an average bear has four times more money than an average bull. The big money is on the short side of the market.
3. When bullish consensus falls to 20 percent, it means that 20 percent of traders are long and 80 percent are short. Since the numbers of long and short contracts are always equal, an average bull holds four times more contracts than are held by an average bear. It shows that big money is on the long side of the market.
Big money did not grow big by being stupid. Big traders tend to be more knowledgeable and successful than average -- otherwise they stop being big traders. When big money gravitates to one side of the market, think of trading in that direction.
To interpret bullish consensus in any market, obtain at least twelve months of historical data on consensus and note the levels at which the market has turned in the past.
Update these levels once every three months. The next time the market consensus becomes highly bullish, look for an opportunity to sell short using technical indicators. When the consensus becomes very bearish, look for a buying opportunity.
Advisory opinion sometimes begins to change a week or two in advance of major trend reversals. If bullish consensus ticks down from 78 to 76, or if it rises from 25 to 27, it shows that the savviest advisors are abandoning what looks like a winning trend. This means that the trend is ready to reverse.
Google Books
~~~
Is there a data available about what does "rich minority" of futures traders bets on S&P 500 futures (or VIX futures)? Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/205359.html
Trading mistakes
2021-02-23 12:12:39 - Bought 200 ABNB $183.7
Observed ABNB growth up to ~$206
2021-02-24 - Observed ABNB decline down to ~$180
Promised to myself to sell ABNB at ~$206
2021-02-25 - Made a lucky mistake of not selling ABNB at ~$206
2021-02-25 14:12:25 - SOLD -2 ABNB $210.40
Unfortunately, I confused selling option contracts (which I could sell only 2 on top of 200 ABNB shares) with selling underlying ABNB shares (which I had 200).
Now I realized the mistake, but ABNB is only at ~$204 now (in the afterhours).
I guess I should reevaluate what to do with the remaining 198 of ABNB on the following Monday... Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/205061.html
Observed ABNB growth up to ~$206
2021-02-24 - Observed ABNB decline down to ~$180
Promised to myself to sell ABNB at ~$206
2021-02-25 - Made a lucky mistake of not selling ABNB at ~$206
2021-02-25 14:12:25 - SOLD -2 ABNB $210.40
Unfortunately, I confused selling option contracts (which I could sell only 2 on top of 200 ABNB shares) with selling underlying ABNB shares (which I had 200).
Now I realized the mistake, but ABNB is only at ~$204 now (in the afterhours).
I guess I should reevaluate what to do with the remaining 198 of ABNB on the following Monday... Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/205061.html
Gmail "catch all" email
I try to setup catch-all address for ...@postjobfree.com emails
I want to redirect to support@postjobfree.com -- all emails that were sent to non-defined email alias.
Gmail Domain Admin team obfuscated "catch-all" functionality a lot, but I was able to find where that catch-all setup is:
1) https://admin.google.com/
2) Click "Apps"
https://admin.google.com/ac/apps
3) Click "Google Workspace"
https://admin.google.com/ac/appslist/core
4) Click "Gmail"
https://admin.google.com/AdminHome?hl=en_US#AppDetails:service=email
5) Click "Routing"
https://admin.google.com/ac/apps/gmail/routing?hl=en_US
Until 20 minutes ago, this page "worked" for me (in the sense of showing fields where I could enter my catch-all email address).
Several days ago I entered catch-all email.
But Gmail never caught any emails that I sent to undefined email aliases.
So today I tried to disable catch-all, and then enable catch-all again.
So now "catch-all setup" page returns me an error message (when I try to simply open it):
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
https://admin.google.com/ac/apps/gmail/routing?hl=en_US
400. That’s an error.
The server cannot process the request because it is malformed. It should not be retried. That’s all we know.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I tried to sign out and then sign in again.
But error persists.
Does anyone encounter Google Admin errors like that with "Catch-all setup" page? Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/205049.html
I want to redirect to support@postjobfree.com -- all emails that were sent to non-defined email alias.
Gmail Domain Admin team obfuscated "catch-all" functionality a lot, but I was able to find where that catch-all setup is:
1) https://admin.google.com/
2) Click "Apps"
https://admin.google.com/ac/apps
3) Click "Google Workspace"
https://admin.google.com/ac/appslist/core
4) Click "Gmail"
https://admin.google.com/AdminHome?hl=en_US#AppDetails:service=email
5) Click "Routing"
https://admin.google.com/ac/apps/gmail/routing?hl=en_US
Until 20 minutes ago, this page "worked" for me (in the sense of showing fields where I could enter my catch-all email address).
Several days ago I entered catch-all email.
But Gmail never caught any emails that I sent to undefined email aliases.
So today I tried to disable catch-all, and then enable catch-all again.
So now "catch-all setup" page returns me an error message (when I try to simply open it):
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
https://admin.google.com/ac/apps/gmail/routing?hl=en_US
400. That’s an error.
The server cannot process the request because it is malformed. It should not be retried. That’s all we know.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I tried to sign out and then sign in again.
But error persists.
Does anyone encounter Google Admin errors like that with "Catch-all setup" page? Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/205049.html
Internet Speed
AT&T upgraded our internet fiber speed:
~~~
https://www.speedtest.net/result/10976651023
Download - 278.43 Mbps
Upload - 358.47 Mbps
~~~
AT&T Fiber also lowered price from $70/month down to $45/month (for 12 month).
After 12 month the price may go up to $65/month again.
What is your Internet Speed? Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/204602.html
~~~
https://www.speedtest.net/result/10976651023
Download - 278.43 Mbps
Upload - 358.47 Mbps
~~~
AT&T Fiber also lowered price from $70/month down to $45/month (for 12 month).
After 12 month the price may go up to $65/month again.
What is your Internet Speed? Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/204602.html
Selling UVXY PUTs
1) Stock Market went a bit crazy at the end of the day today:
S&P 500 reached 3,934.83 (all times high).
VIX dropped to 19.97
We did not see VIX that low for almost a year (only before March 2020 Covid panic).
UVXY is at record low $9.42
2) So I sold a lot of UVXY PUTs today with strike price $11 and expiration next Friday 2021-02-19.
That is a big bet that VIX is going to jump back into 21+ territory (or, at least, will not go significantly below 20).
3) This time I am not nervous about this big bet (but I still understand that I may lose).
4) I think that the next Monday (2021-02-15) S&P 500 is likely to decline at least a little bit from today's record gains. Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/204306.html
S&P 500 reached 3,934.83 (all times high).
VIX dropped to 19.97
We did not see VIX that low for almost a year (only before March 2020 Covid panic).
UVXY is at record low $9.42
2) So I sold a lot of UVXY PUTs today with strike price $11 and expiration next Friday 2021-02-19.
That is a big bet that VIX is going to jump back into 21+ territory (or, at least, will not go significantly below 20).
3) This time I am not nervous about this big bet (but I still understand that I may lose).
4) I think that the next Monday (2021-02-15) S&P 500 is likely to decline at least a little bit from today's record gains. Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/204306.html
