March 16th, 2020


GUSH - 2020-03-16

Got lucky today and sold 18,425 GUSH shares for $0.77/shares
But did not use my luck to sell more (should have exited for the sake of my sanity).
At the end of the day GUSH was at $0.61/share
I learned today that:
1) GUSH decayed over the weekend about 25%:
(GUSH dropped since Friday 21.19%, and opposing bear 3x ETF DRIP dropped 29.41%)
So they dropped on average (21.19% + 29.41%) / 2 = 25.3% which is a lot.
I should have remembered about weekend decay from my FAS/FAZ experience back in 2008.

2) GUSH grew [*] a little bit today, in spite that S&P 500 dropped a lot.
[*] GUSH grew relative to Sunday, but dropped relative to Friday due to the weekend decay.

I expected that S&P 500 would grow at least a little bit, because the Fed rate cut on Sunday.
I even disagreed with the Fed decision to cut rates as much.
But I was wrong. The markets panicked anyway. A lot. S&P 500 dropped 11.98%

I expected that GUSH will grow proportionally to S&P 500.
I was wrong. GUSH went in the opposite direction from S&P 500.
Looking backwards I may expect some of that GUSH comeback, considering how much GUSH (that is based on SPSIOPTR) dropped on the day I bought GUSH for the first time. But I did not expect that SPSIOPTR comeback to be that quick and prominent.

So it is clear now that I cannot do short-term market predictions. I can do long-term market predictions generally successfully, but my short-term market predictions are closer to random noise.

Originally posted at: