March 18th, 2020

2009

The war against Chinese virus

Donald Trump said today: "in the war against Chinese virus".

So Trump implies that the US is kind of in a war with China.

WTF?
Trump should have known that the problem is not the Coronavirus itself, but our society panic about it.
Bringing up that war reference and blaming Chinese for detecting Coronavirus - will make the panic situation worse, not better.

I think that Trump will lose the next presidential election (2020-11-03).

Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/185202.html
2009

COVID-19 scare

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf report suggests that COVID-19 epidemic in the US is only at the beginning.
But how do they know that without extensive testing for COVID-19?
Much more likely explanation is that the US is at about the worst part of COVID-19 epidemic already (or even beyond the worst part).
The reason why daily cases of COVID-19 rapidly go up -- is because the US makes more and more COVID-19 tests every day.
So the trend looks scary because number of detected COVID-19 cases rapidly goes up. But the number of real COVID-19 cases is already at the peak and is likely to go down in the following days. Most of these real cases of COVID-19 still stay undetected.
Meanwhile, the number of tested COVID-19 cases may still go up for couple of more weeks - until it hits the declining tail of real cases.

Originally posted at: https://dennisgorelik.dreamwidth.org/185781.html