March 29th, 2020


What is worse: lockdown or COVID-19?

On the Diamond Princess, where most of the passengers were in their 60's and 70's and you would expect at least a 5% fatality rate, the actual rate when everyone was tested was 2% of those with symptoms, 1% of those who tested positive, and 0.2% of all the passengers.

A global lockdown doesn't just destroy the economy. It kills people. In some Caribbean islands, 80% the economy is tourism. Now, they suddenly have 80% unemployment and people can't eat. Every year, global GDP increases 2.5% and global life expectancy increases 0.2 years. A 3 month lockdown (what it took in China and Korea) means a 10 year setback, or a 2 year reduction in life expectancy. That is 116 million people killed through reduced income to pay for food, sanitation, and health care.

Originally posted at: