?

Log in

No account? Create an account
 
 
10 April 2015 @ 07:35 pm
Solar panel saga continues  
I Just had the solar panel salesman over my house.
We talked over 3 hours.
He told me that his usual appointment is about one hour, and usually he is successful at selling.
He told me that he usually have 3-4 appointments every day and he sells about 2 times per day.

With 5% commission and $30K average sale price he makes a lot of money. You do the math.
Well, I think he overestimated it a bit, but it's still a lot.

BTW, he pays to the guy who setup appointments $40 per lead.
So, assuming I do not buy from him (which is likely, but not definitely), he lost $40 and 3 hours of time.

---
Now, back to solar panels benefits for me.
To simplify, according to his calculations, if I get a 12 years loan for 100% of sale price and then use 30% tax rebate from the government, then my loan payments would be about the same as my current electric bill savings.

So, for example with solar panel that would cost me $150/month monthly payments on the loan, I will cut $150/month from my electric bill.
Due to 3% inflation electricity price is going up about 3% every year. But my loan payments would stay fixed.
And after 12 years, when I repay that loan, I would have to pay nothing.

Another interesting benefit the salesman told me about is that string converter works with solar panel has batteries that keeps electricity for couple of hours.
Sounds like Uninterruptible power supply to me.
I wonder if it would actually be able to maintain power for 2 hours.

The salesman told me that since roof on my house does not have any shades, I should use string converter (instead of microconverters that are beneficial if solar panels have varying power output).

The price for 7KWatt converter is about $25K with installation (2.5 times higher than internet price without installation).

I do not want to install it myself, so I would need to find somebody to install it.


Update 1:
The salesman claimed that solar panel installed on my roof would at least keep its value if I would try to sell my house (30% tax rebate would help).
He also claimed that in California these solar panels even increase house cost by more than they were bought for.

Part 1 of Solar panel saga
 
 
 
aka_humanaka_human on April 10th, 2015 11:53 pm (UTC)
по-моему обычный платёж за электричество долларов $60. Что никак не окупает $150 в месяц затрат (если цифра близка к реальной).
Dennis Gorelikdennisgorelik on April 10th, 2015 11:57 pm (UTC)
У нас - $150/mo+: большой дом, много детей.
aka_humanaka_human on April 11th, 2015 12:00 am (UTC)
А что, продавец уверял, что мощности солнечных батарей хватит на такое большое потребление? Сколько же они способны вырабатывать? При этом надо учитывать плохую погоду.
Anatoli Dontsovlamantyn on April 11th, 2015 12:29 am (UTC)
> При этом надо учитывать плохую погоду.

Ну и просто ночь. Свет, TV, компьютеры, посудомойка, холодильник.
Во Флориде кондиционер и ночью работает.

Мы за электричество заплатили 2013 - $1800, 2014 - $1765.
Панели заменят ну половину.
(no subject) - aka_human on April 11th, 2015 12:33 am (UTC) (Expand)
Dennis Gorelikdennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 03:40 am (UTC)
У нас, в Северной Флориде, погода, обычно, хорошая.
И дома большие (с большой крышей).

Продавец уверял, что батареями можно и больше получить.
Например, $300/mo.
Только у него такая инсталяция стоила бы $50K+.
ex_juan_gan on April 11th, 2015 12:29 am (UTC)
So for 12 years you'll be paying as much as you've been paying; in addition you'll have to pay for this and that, take care of repair etc, and in 12 years the stuff will be totally obsolete and unusable. Did you check how long solar panels last?
perdakotperdakot on April 11th, 2015 01:43 am (UTC)
Солнечные панели деградируют постепенно. Лет через 25 будут вырабатывать 80%. Больше интересен ресурс коробки, которая соединяет солнечнеые панели с домом и внешней электросетью, батареи, куда девается излишек энергии днем (счетчик в обратную сторону мотает?) и что происходит ночью.
Anatoli Dontsovlamantyn on April 11th, 2015 02:02 am (UTC)
Еще интересна вероятность града и стоимость страхования.

> Солнечные панели деградируют постепенно. Лет через 25 будут вырабатывать 80%

А официальная гарантия на сколько? И кто ее будет исполнять через ХХ лет?

=== cut ====
Cheap Chinese solar panels have flooded the market and are now starting to fail at an alarming rate. Solar panels covering a warehouse roof in Los Angeles were only two years into their expected 25-year life span when they began to fail. Worldwide, solar power adopters are reporting similar problems and the $77 billion solar industry is facing a quality crisis reports Doug Hoffman. (1)

In May 2013 The New York Times exposed this growing scandal at the heart of the solar power industry. No one is sure how pervasive the problem is since there are no industry wide figures about defective solar panels. And when the defects are discovered, confidentiality agreements often keep the manufacturer’s identity secret, making accountability in the industry all the more difficult.
=== cut ====
SolarBuyer, a company based in Marlborough, Mass., discovered defect rates of 5.5% to 22% during audits of 50 Chinese factories over the last 18 months notes, Todd Woody.(2)
=== cut ====
Dennis Gorelikdennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 03:47 am (UTC)
> Еще интересна вероятность града и стоимость страхования.

У нас (Северная Флорида) град маловероятен. Во всяком случае такой, который может повредить солнечные панели.

> А официальная гарантия на сколько?

25 лет.

> И кто ее будет исполнять через ХХ лет?

Я тоже об этом подумал.
Но не спросил.
Вряд ли кто-то будет исполнять.
Все эти многолетние гарантии мало что стоят.
Во всяком случае от компаний, которым только пять лет.

> Solar panels covering a warehouse roof in Los Angeles were only two years into their expected 25-year life span when they began to fail.

Это важно, конечно.
Какой же вывод из этого всего?
Не связываться и подождать ещё лет пять, когда эти солнечные батареи основательно подешевеют?
(no subject) - anspa on April 11th, 2015 03:51 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - leonid_smetanin on April 11th, 2015 09:08 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - lamantyn on April 11th, 2015 01:35 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - dennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 01:49 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - lamantyn on April 11th, 2015 02:05 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - dennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 05:28 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - lamantyn on April 11th, 2015 05:32 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - dennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 08:17 pm (UTC) (Expand)
iz_chicagoiz_chicago on April 11th, 2015 03:57 am (UTC)
That's exactly what I wanted to mention. Cheap panels are going down very quickly.
(no subject) - dennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 03:59 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - iz_chicago on April 11th, 2015 05:00 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - dennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 05:15 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - iz_chicago on April 11th, 2015 05:24 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - lamantyn on April 11th, 2015 01:48 pm (UTC) (Expand)
Clean and soberanspa on April 11th, 2015 03:50 am (UTC)
А откуда известно про 80% через 25 лет? Я видел гораздо более пессиместические прогнозы, отличающиеся в разы.
Dennis Gorelikdennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 03:53 am (UTC)
Я исхожу из оценки 1% ухудшения в год.
Где-то эту цифру слышал, но уже не помню.
Возможно это чрезмерно оптимистичная выдумка.
(no subject) - iz_chicago on April 11th, 2015 03:59 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - dennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 04:13 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - lamantyn on April 11th, 2015 01:17 pm (UTC) (Expand)
Dennis Gorelikdennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 04:09 am (UTC)
Счётчик мотает в обратную сторону.
При этом компания, поставляющая электроэнергию (JEA) обязана покупать назад по такой же цене, по какой продаёт(*).
Понятно, JEA заниматься этой фигнёй забесплатно не хочет.
Но пока солнечных батарей среди её потребителей мало - она это терпит.

---
(*) Как объяснил продавец, JEA продаёт 1 киловатт-час за $0.14, покупает нагенерированное за $0.09 и возвращает купленное за $0.09.

Если предположить, что генерировать мы будем столько же, сколько и потреблять, то JEA должна возиться с проводами и трансформаторами - забесплатно.
Вряд ли эта лафа долго продлится.
Dennis Gorelikdennisgorelik on April 11th, 2015 04:27 am (UTC)
> So for 12 years you'll be paying as much as you've been paying;

According to the sales guy - slightly less (due to rising electricity prices).

> Did you check how long solar panels last?

How long?
I heard about 1% degradation per year.
Is it worse than that?
ex_juan_gan on April 11th, 2015 04:33 am (UTC)
1% is not a problem of course.