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18 October 2015 @ 06:10 pm
The Underpopulation Bomb (2013)  
the charts never show what happens on the other side of the peak. The second half is so often missing that no one even asks for it any longer. It may be because it's pretty scary news. The hidden half of the chart is that it projects a steady downward plunge toward fewer and fewer people on the planet each year—and no agreement on how close to zero it can go.

I personally think that Kevin Kelly's forecast (that we would have population peak in the foreseeable future) is incorrect.
Natural selection of humans and natural selection of cultures will make sure that average fertility rate stays above reproduction levels.

Theoretical Earth population limit estimate
The earth, without space based power, can keep about 1e18 humans alive on this planet using just earth-based solar power.
if the growth since WWII (1.36% per year, starting at 2000 with 6 billion people), then we'd get to 1e18 a little after the year 3400
occam_agaoccam_aga on October 18th, 2015 11:21 pm (UTC)
Natural selection of humans and natural selection of cultures would make sure that average fertility rate would stay above reproduction levels.

Мне это утверждение кажется необоснованным. 9Х% видов вымерли и естественный отбор им никак не помог.
Dennis Gorelikdennisgorelik on October 18th, 2015 11:40 pm (UTC)
Когда-то population peak, конечно, случится, но это вряд ли произойдёт в ближайшую сотню лет.
А если и произойдёт, то потому, что человек будет заменён компьютерами (проигрыш в межвидовой борьбе).